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| Published：2021.03.20 News Sources：Qingdao Gute Ship Supplies Co., Ltd. Views： | |||
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Consolidation market is no longer hot, high rates may be difficult to continue this year
Recently, the reporter learned from a number of practitioners, at present guangzhou and shenzhen area a number of popular route prices are lower than before, and the container supply can meet the basic demand for use. Relevant analysis shows that the demand for consolidation still exists, but in the short term, as the supply chain gradually returns to normal, the extremely high freight price level may not be maintained for a long time. Freight is down The Shanghai Export Container Price Index (SCFI) fell 3.1 percent to 2,637.53 points from the previous period, while the China Export Container Price Index (CCFI) stood at 1,912.13 points from 1,70.58 points, according to index information released by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange on Friday. In other words, both the latest CCFI and SCFI indices fell last week. Guangzhou a freight forwarding company staff told reporters, "after the year the basic routes are in the price reduction. Now we have fewer shipments. The price can't collapse. It will collapse soon. Some of their prices are being lowered by the end of the month." One U.S. route is now down nearly 10% from its high a year ago, according to the airline. The Middle East and Southeast Asia routes are both down nearly 20% from their highs, and prices are likely to fall further based on current bookings. But other practitioners expressed a different view. Another person in charge of a freight forwarder said, "The price drop now is mainly caused by the lack of shipments. Many companies are out of the goods before the year, after the year most factories are in stock. In addition to the rise in raw material prices, commodity prices caused by traders also reduced shipments. When subsequent shipments come back and demand is here, prices are expected to remain high." Shipper side wait-and-see mood is thick. A Foshan furniture factory staff said, "recently we are also observing the industry price, multi-party inquiry. But it seems that prices are likely to fall in the near future. Yesterday (16th) a freight forwarder in the morning quoted a Southeast Asia route said to use the price at the end of March, in the afternoon two times reduced, the range is about 300 dollars. Although the forwarder company promised to book the space now, if the price drops will refund the difference, but we still wait and see." The furniture factory staff helplessly said, "now the freight rate is very high." Improvement of container supply According to the above practitioners, large ports in Guangzhou and Shenzhen, such as Nansha Port, Yantian Port, Shekou Port and other containers, are in normal supply. However, small ports in the Pearl River Delta, such as Foshan, Zhongshan and Jiangmen, are still short of containers, and the situation continues to improve. Although the current container supply is basically stable. But the reporter also learned from a Nansha yard staff, the current container trading market is still hot, the price is at a high level, but compared with the year ago also fell. At present, the size of the used 40GP boxes sold in the yard is basically around 25,000, the price of the used 40HQ boxes is about 33,000, and the price of the new 40HQ boxes is about 43,000, which are all high prices in recent years. However, according to the staff of the storage yard, the price of 40HQ second-hand box before the year was about 37000, and the price has fallen compared with that before the year. However, in terms of overall supply, due to the decrease in the shipment volume after the New Year and the more flexible scheduling of shipping companies, the large ports are basically sufficient, but other small ports in the Pearl River Delta are still in a state of shortage of boxes. "Abnormally high" rates in the second half of last year made shipping companies profitable. According to the performance report that has been disclosed, Haifeng International (1308.HK) last year net profit growth of 59.8%; China Ocean Holding (601919.SH) realized a net profit of 9.927 billion yuan last year, up 46.76% year on year; Hlag.df) posted a full-year revenue increase of about 3% on higher average freight rates despite a slight decline in shipping volumes. As for the slight adjustment of freight rates, CCOSC said, "Container transportation market is a fully competitive industry, and the market freight rates are mainly determined by the economic and trade environment, market supply and demand fundamentals and other factors." Northeast Securities Research Daily said, overall, the consolidation market callback is still a temporary demand adjustment caused by the shortage of domestic inventory after the Spring Festival. With the recovery of port operation efficiency, the short-term shortage of containers and the cancellation of ports have eased somewhat, but the overseas consumer demand is still strong, and the demand for consolidated transport remains high. Industrial Securities Research Report believes that in the short term, with the overseas epidemic under control and the supply chain gradually returning to normal, the current extremely high freight price level is difficult to maintain for a long time. In 2021, the consolidation market may show a trend of high before and low after, but the overall level will still be at a good level. In the medium and long term, the growth rate of industry supply slows down, and the increase of concentration brings about the improvement of market structure. Under the condition of normal demand, the medium and long term trend of the industry is upward.
At the Intermodal Connect conference held recently, industry insiders said that from the fundamentals of consolidation, the medium-term outlook for the industry is quite optimistic. Renzo Hoefnagels, managing director of transport and logistics at ABN Amro, said the fact that China was the first to recover was a timely sign for the market. The rapid reopening of manufacturing in China has satisfied demand from Western consumers and contributed to a rebound in the market for consolidated shipments. |
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