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| Published：2019.10.21 News Sources：Qingdao Gute Ship Supplies Co., Ltd. Views： | |||
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Container ship market freight rate fell sharply in the fourth quarter is not optimistic
After the 11th holiday, the freight rate in the container shipping market fell sharply. The freight rate from Asia to the US West Coast fell to nearly US$1,150 per FEU from US$1615 at the end of August, a drop of nearly 30%. According to market participants, according to official statistics, the volume of shipments from mainland China to the United States decreased by 5% in the first half of this year, and the volume of shipments to Southeast Asia increased by 18%. However, the increased volume in Southeast Asia is not enough to compensate for the decline in the mainland market. In the third quarter of this year, the container market has been in a state of low peak season, and the fourth quarter is even less optimistic. Some shipping companies pointed out that in September last year, the company's weekly cargo volume in the Asian region exceeded 5,000 FEU, which was reduced by nearly 20% to 4100 FEU this year. It is estimated to fall below 4000 FEU in October; the US line has cut more than 20 flights this month. Some big American customers told the company that after the trade war broke out last year, the goods they rushed into have not been digested. The shipping company originally planned to start collecting low-sulfur oil surcharges in October, but has decided to postpone it until December 1. At the same time, although the American shipper organization and the large department store chain expressed their willingness to pay the low sulfur oil surcharge, they did not agree with the calculation method. Therefore, it is estimated that it takes a long time for the shipping company and the shipper to agree. On the other hand, the results of the upcoming Sino-US trade negotiations are still unpredictable, which also makes the future expectations of the container shipping market full of uncertainty. However, despite the overall poor market situation this year, the current consolidation market has not experienced fierce low-price competition. This is mainly because there are only three liner liners left in the market, and the alliances have reduced their supply and demand through shift reduction and reduction. The freight rate remains at a certain level. The industry believes that there is still a turning point in the market. In addition to the self-discipline and capacity deployment of the liner alliance, Sino-US trade negotiations may have good results. If the tariff can be lowered first, it will help to increase the volume; in case the negotiation fails. The United States has raised tariffs from 20% to 30% for 40 billion commodities. It is estimated that there will be a wave of rushing before the implementation of tariff increases, and it may also turn the fourth quarter from the off-season to the peak season. In addition, US importers have less purchases in the third quarter, and there may be a wave of replenishment before Christmas. |
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