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Asian shipowners will become the new "overlord" in the future VLCC field
Shun Tak Maritime News reported on March 6 that at the Asian Tanker Conference of the Asian Tanker Conference held recently, Ralph Leszczynski, principal analyst of Banchero Costa, a well-known shipping brokerage company, said that Asian shipowners will dominate the VLCC market. However, it also said that although the VLCC shipping market seems to be in a market equilibrium, more new shipbuilding capacity may pose a certain degree of threat to the market.
In a market analysis report called An analysis of the tanker market: where is it heading? in Banchero Costa, Ralph Leszczynski said that Asian shipowners are playing an increasingly important role in the world VLCC shipping market. obvious.
“Although Greek shipowners still hold 20% of new ship orders, shipowners from China, Japan and South Korea have also begun to occupy a large share. Currently, Chinese ship owners hold 14% of the order share, followed by South Korea. 10%, 8% in Japan, and 4% in Singapore."
At the same time, it also said that although Chinese shipowners are more "powerful", Chinese shipyards have not taken up the market share they deserve. At least two-thirds of new ship orders have fallen to Korean shipyards, along with offshore and The reduction in orders for container ships, coupled with the merger expectations of Daewoo Shipbuilding Marine and Hyundai Heavy Industries, may result in future Korean shipyards trying to obtain more orders for crude oil ships. "
In terms of demand for crude oil transportation, it revealed that the volume of crude oil shipping is still at an all-time high – about 2 billion tons per year. China’s demand has also increased by 10% last year and is still growing. It is the driving force behind the market’s rise, although OPEC’s production cuts have also had a certain negative impact on the market.
In terms of capacity dismantling, Leszczynski expects that the ship dismantling activity, which has been very strong since 2018, will continue in the next 10 years.
At the same time, it is expected that the speed of newbuilding will slow down in the next few years, but a large uncertainty is that the idle shipbuilding capacity and the more appropriate price may have an impact on the shipowner's future choices.
"In addition to some larger companies, other companies are relatively difficult in terms of ship financing, which limits the growth of new ship orders to a certain extent. In addition, geopolitical uncertainty and new environmental regulations such as 2020 sulfur limit ( The investment and use of new fuel technologies has also limited the growth of new ship orders to some extent.
“At this stage, many ship owners are inclined to wait and see, which is more favorable for the freight/rent market in the next few years.”
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