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| Published：2020.12.18 News Sources：Qingdao Gute Ship Supplies Co., Ltd. Views： | |||
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Asian economic recovery, global tanker market has bottomed out
Recently, the global tanker market has begun to bottom out and recover. The US investment research institute Marketscreener reported on December 15 that the demand for tankers has begun to pick up recently, mainly due to the recovery of the Asian economy. Refineries in the region have been purchasing large quantities of crude oil from the Middle East, West Africa and Europe. The investment research institution believes that although the world is experiencing the second round of the impact of the new crown epidemic, oil consumption is still recovering at a relatively good rate. It is expected that by the second half of next year, the global oil consumption level will be basically the same as before the epidemic. The International Energy Agency (IEA) also pointed out in its monthly report on the same day that the recovery of oil demand in Asia in the next few months may have a positive effect on the global tanker market. Xinde Maritime.com, a maritime information consulting service platform, reported that since 2015, China's refined oil exports have increased rapidly, driven by the growth of refining capacity and the liberalization of product markets. In the short term, China's demand for crude oil will not weaken, and most of the increased demand for crude oil will be met by seaborne imports. According to data from the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, as of December 10, the China Imported Crude Oil Composite Index (CTFI) reported 663.45 points, an increase of more than 10% from last week. Among them, the VLCC Middle East route has a revenue of 13,700 USD/day; the West Africa route has a daily revenue of 17,000 USD/day. This is an increase of 20.18% and 49.12% from the average income of 11,400 US dollars/day at the trough in November this year. This year, the global oil transportation market has experienced a roller coaster-like market with ups and downs. In March of this year, after the OPEC+ negotiations broke down, Saudi Arabia launched a price war. As a result, international oil prices plummeted, prompting a surge in demand for oil storage. With the onshore oil inventory gradually approaching full capacity, the VLCC spot freight and time charter prices that can be used for offshore floating oil storage began to soar, and the price was once more than 60% higher than the beginning of the year. In May, the OPEC + production reduction agreement came into effect, and the global crude oil demand was reduced due to the new crown epidemic, the global crude oil tanker revenue began to callback, of which VLCC revenue plummeted by nearly 80% in nine days. In July, affected by China's increase in crude oil imports and the increase in global chartering inquiries, the global VLCC rents of various ship types and routes rebounded again, with prices rising by more than 50% within a week. Tim Smith, an analyst at Maritime Strategies International (MSI), a shipping consultancy, said in an interview with Sindhi Maritime in September that due to the high inventory levels of offshore floating oil storage in the first half of this year, even if there is some demand for oil Recovery, the tanker market is also difficult to rebound quickly. Subsequently, in the context of the impact of the epidemic and the decline in overall demand for crude oil, the global tanker market continued to show a weak trend. In November, the global VLCC revenue averaged 11,400 US dollars/day, which was less than one-twentieth of the highest revenue of 250,000 US dollars/day in March. International Shipping News reported on December 15 that at present, there are signs in the market that the revenue of the tanker market in November has bottomed out. From December this year to the first quarter of the year, the global tanker market may gradually begin to recover. |
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