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| Published：2021.01.19 News Sources：Qingdao Gute Ship Supplies Co., Ltd. Views： | |||
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Three main ship type transport market prospect Container market
CCFI trend comparison chart for 2018-2020
Data source: Shanghai Airlines Exchange (three issues of the index will be suspended on February 8, May 3 and October 4, 2019, and two issues will be suspended during the Spring Festival in January 2020)
In the short term, on the demand side, China's factory export orders are already lined up to the first quarter of 2021; On the supply side, the shortage of available container ships has led to a rise in ship rents, and the imbalance of cargo flows has exacerbated the shortage of container equipment. Sea-Intelligence data shows that in addition to normal empty container transfers, the Asian region has been short of 1 million TEUs of container equipment per month since October. The market is generally expected that due to ship pressure, shortage of containers and other problems in the short term is difficult to ease, freight rate pressure will continue until mid-February.
In the long run, for the annual consolidation demand in 2021, Alphaliner, Clarkson and Drewry forecast the growth rate of 3.5%, 4.9% and 8.9% respectively (the forecast of Alphaliner and Drewry does not include freight distance), and the growth rate of capacity is 3.9%, 3.4% and 4.5% respectively, indicating a significant improvement in the supply and demand relationship compared with 2020. But there are still big uncertainties: if the outbreak worsens significantly, it will hit the global economy and demand for shipments; If the epidemic is quickly contained, consumers will switch back to service consumption, which will also affect the demand for consolidation. Fuel costs are under upward pressure. At the same time, considering that in early December 2020, container ship orders accounted for only 9.1% of the active capacity, and it will be normal for liner companies to adjust capacity deployment according to demand, the average level of 2021 is expected to be better than that of 2020.
Tanker market
Comparison chart of WS trend of TD3C route from the Middle East to China in 2019-2020
Source: The Baltic Exchange
In the short term, the oil tanker explosion in Jeddah Port of Saudi Arabia on December 14 has raised the geopolitical risk of global oil supply again, increasing the uncertainty of the oil tanker market and putting downward pressure on the market.
In the long run, the mutated virus is spreading in many countries, and the global epidemic situation will still be grim in 2021. OPEC, the IEA and the EIA lowered their forecasts for global oil demand growth in 2021 by 350,000 b/d, 100,000 b/d and 110,000 b/d, respectively, 5.9 million b/d, 5.7 million b/d and 5.78 million b/d. For the full year, crude and product tanker orders remain at healthy levels of 8% and 7% of existing fleets, and there are still hopes for a recovery in the tanker market once late-stage dismantling activity picks up. Clarkson expects crude oil round demand to grow by 5.7% and supply by 4.2% in 2021, with VLCC demand growing by 4.8% and supply growing by 4.9% Dry bulk cargo transport market
Chart of BDI trends from 2018 to 2020
Source: The Baltic Exchange
Clarkson's latest forecast shows that due to the impact of the new crown, the dry bulk shipping market will see seaborne turnover fall by 2.2% in 2020, seaborne trade fall by 2.9%, and fleet growth in terms of deadweight tons will grow by 3.8%.
It is estimated that in 2021, dry bulk seaborne trade volume will achieve 4% growth rate, seaborne turnover growth rate will reach 4.4%, and fleet growth rate will be about 1.7%. In terms of commodities, iron ore and grain will continue the growth trend in 2020, with the growth rate reaching 2.4% and 2.6% respectively. Coal and small bulk commodities will change from the declining trend in 2020, with a growth rate of 4.6% and 5.3% respectively. However, it needs to be noted that the coal seaborne market is subject to greater uncertainty due to environmental policies, China-Australia relations and domestic expansion of coal capacity.
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